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As the presidential election approaches, award-winning luxury realtor Tim Van Damm—recently recognized as The Best Realtor in San Diego by Modern Luxury—shares valuable insights into how elections historically influence the housing market, both in the lead-up to and following Election Day.
“In a typical year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall due to seasonal trends,” Van Damm explains. “But election years are different—there’s usually a noticeable dip as people hold off on big decisions.” According to data from BTIG, this slowdown is even more pronounced in the month leading up to Election Day, with a sharper decline in home sales compared to non-election years (see graph below).
This trend is largely driven by uncertainty. “Buying or selling a home is a major commitment, and many consumers prefer to wait until after the election to see how the outcome might affect things like interest rates or the economy,” Van Damm notes. This year is no exception: a recent Redfin survey shows that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are waiting until after the election to purchase a home.
However, the delay doesn’t mean these sales are lost. “The good news is that history shows us these sales come back after the election dust settles,” says Van Damm. Data reveals that the housing market has consistently rebounded after elections, with an increase in home sales 82% of the time in the year following Election Day (see chart below).
Looking ahead, if historical trends are any indication, 2025 is likely to see an upswing in home sales. Current forecasts align with this expectation, with the housing market projected to reach 4.6 million sales this year and an estimated 5.2 million next year. “For those waiting for a clearer picture, the outlook is positive,” Van Damm adds. “We’re likely to see increased momentum in the housing market in the months following the election.”
Tim Van Damm, recognized as one of the top realtors in the industry, encourages those considering a move to stay informed on market trends and to reach out for personalized guidance. “The market is expected to gain strength post-election. I’m here to help you navigate this timing and make the best decision for your needs,” he says. For further insights or assistance, Tim Van Damm is available to guide clients through this dynamic period in the housing market.
For inquiries or to explore buying or selling a home, you can reach Tim Van Damm at [email protected] or (858) 663-0911.
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